FREESE-NOTIS
EVENING WEATHER UPDATE

5:00 PM, Monday, May 11, 2026

MIDWESTERN U.S.

5:00 PM CDT, Mon May 11, 2026

MIDWEST U.S. - 1

From Monday night through next Monday, corn planting prospects remain favorable overall with strong recent progress amid improving field conditions. As of May 10, 2026, 57% of the 18 key states' corn acreage was planted (up sharply from 38% the prior week and above the 52% 5-year average), with 23% emerged; key states like Iowa (72% planted), Illinois (54%), and Nebraska (67%) show solid advancement, supported by warming trends and mostly dry-to-variable early-week weather that allows continued fieldwork before beneficial rains arrive mid-to-late period. Winter wheat conditions in the Plains benefit from light early precipitation transitioning to above-normal temperatures and rainfall in the 6-10 day outlook (May 15-19), aiding heading under improving moisture. Spring wheat planting in the Northern Plains gains momentum after a cool, very dry start, with warmer and wetter conditions ahead promoting activity following slower early-week progress. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at times (e.g., higher chances Sunday in parts of the Midwest), but the period offers a good window for remaining planting and early growth before more widespread rains relieve any localized dryness or crusting. Soybean planting in the 18 major states (accounting for 96% of U.S. acreage) reached 49% as of May 10, 2026, up sharply from 33% the previous week and well ahead of the 36% 5-year average. This represents strong momentum, with notable gains in key Midwest and Northern Plains states: Iowa at 60% (vs. 27% prior week), Illinois 57%, Nebraska 64%, Minnesota 51%, and South Dakota 34%. Southern states like Arkansas (81%), Louisiana (91%), and Mississippi (83%) are further advanced, supporting overall progress. Emergence stands at 20% (vs. 13% last week and 12% average), indicating good early establishment where planted. This pace aligns with or exceeds recent weeks' rapid advancement (e.g., 33% planted as of May 3), driven by warming trends and field conditions that have allowed fieldwork despite some earlier cool/dry variability. Weather outlook for the coming week (Monday night through next Monday) supports continued strong soybean planting prospects in the Midwest and Plains. Early-week dry-to-variable conditions with warming highs (60s-70s°F) enable more fieldwork before mid-to-late period rains arrive, which should aid germination and help with any soil crusting. The 6-10 day outlook brings above-normal temperatures and rainfall, beneficial for emergence and early growth while relieving localized dryness. Northern areas (e.g., North Dakota at 16% planted) may see slower starts due to cooler early conditions but stand to gain from the warmer/wetter shift. Overall, 2026 soybean planting is tracking robustly ahead of normal, consistent with increased intended acreage (~84.7 million acres, up 4% year-over-year). Growers have a favorable window ahead, though monitoring rainfall timing will be key to avoid any planting delays or crusting issues in drier pockets. Broader context: The 2026 winter wheat crop started the season with already low ratings (around 35% good/excellent in early April) due to drought in the Plains, and conditions have trended lower or stagnant through May amid insufficient soil moisture recharge, high winds, and temperature swings. Some improvement occurred in the Pacific Northwest and a few other pockets, but it was outweighed by Plains declines. This has implications for yield potential, with private estimates and market reactions pointing to a smaller U.S. crop. Upcoming weather (warmer temps and increased rainfall chances in the 6-10 day outlook) could help stabilize or slightly improve conditions in some areas, but significant recovery is limited without more consistent moisture. Spring wheat planting has advanced well (53% planted as of May 10, near average), but the winter wheat story remains the dominant concern For the 1-5 day outlook May 11-May 16, corn belt temperatures will average near 57.4 F which is -6.3F from normal. Rainfall will average 0.19". Approximately 39% of the area will receive a 0.25" or more. This compares to the earlier estimate today of 39%.

For the 6-10 day outlook, May 16-May 20, the western corn belt temperatures will be ABOVE NORMAL. Rainfall will be ABOVE NORMAL. Eastern corn belt temperatures will be ABOVE NORMAL. Rainfall will be ABOVE NORMAL.

For the 11-15 day outlook May 21-May 25, the western corn belt temperatures will be ABOVE NORMAL. Rainfall will be ABOVE NORMAL. Eastern corn belt temperatures will be ABOVE NORMAL. Rainfall will be ABOVE NORMAL.

SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

For the 1-5 day outlook May 11-May 16, delta area temperatures will average near 65.4 F which is -6.5 F from normal. Rainfall will average 0.06". Approximately 0% of the area will receive a 0.25" or more. This compares to the earlier estimate today of 0%.

For the 6-10 day outlook, May 16-May 20, the Delta region temperatures will be ABOVE NORMAL. Rainfall will be ABOVE NORMAL. The southeast region temperatures will be ABOVE NORMAL. Rainfall will be Normal.

For the 11-15 day outlook May 21-May 25, the Delta temperatures will be ABOVE NORMAL. Rainfall will be ABOVE NORMAL. The southeast region temperatures will be ABOVE NORMAL. Rainfall will be ABOVE NORMAL.

PLAINS

For the 1-5 day outlook May 11-May 16, winter wheat temperatures will average near 65.4 F which is .3 F from normal. Rainfall will average 0.06". Approximately 3% of the area will receive a 0.25" or more.. This compares to the earlier estimate today of 3%.

For the 6-10 day outlook, May 16-May 20, the winter wheat temperatures will be ABOVE NORMAL. Rainfall will be ABOVE NORMAL.

For the 11-15 day outlook May 21-May 25, the winter wheat temperatures will be ABOVE NORMAL. Rainfall will be ABOVE NORMAL.

NORTHERN PLAINS

For the 1-5 day outlook May 11-May 16, spring wheat temperatures will average near 54.3 F which is -3.6 F from normal. Rainfall will average 0.20". Approximately 46% of the area will receive a 0.25" or more. This compares to the earlier estimate today of 46%.

For the 6-10 day outlook, May 16-May 20, the spring wheat temperatures will be Normal. Rainfall will be ABOVE NORMAL.

For the 11-15 day outlook May 21-May 25, the spring wheat temperatures will be ABOVE NORMAL. Rainfall will be Normal.

NORTHEAST

For the 1-5 day outlook May 11-May 16, megalopolis area temperatures will average near 52.0 F which is -10.8 F from normal. Rainfall will average 0.62". Approximately 100% of the area will receive a 0.25" or more. This compares to the earlier estimate today of 100%.

For the 6-10 day outlook, May 16-May 20, The Megalopolis temperatures will be ABOVE NORMAL. Rainfall will be Normal.

For the 11-15 day outlook May 21-May 25, The Megalopolis temperatures will be ABOVE NORMAL. Rainfall will be Normal.

SOUTH AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION MAPS

For the 1-5 day outlook May 11-May 16, Brazil Corn area temperatures will average near 77.5 F which is 1.3 from normal. Rainfall will average 0.04. Approximately 0% of the area will receive a 0.25" or more. This compares to the earlier estimate today of %.

For the 6-10 day outlook May 17-May 21, Mato Grosso Brazil Safrinha Corn and Soybean area temperatures will average near 78.1 F which is 2.2 from normal. Rainfall will average 0.19. Approximately 43% of the area will receive a 0.25" or more. This compares to the earlier estimate today of 43%.

ARGENTINA SOYBEANS