South American Crop & Weather Narrative — January 20, 2026

Brazil Soybean Regions:
• Mato Grosso Soybeans: 30-day precip significantly below normal (32.0%) — concerning dryness. scattered showers (~42.9 mm). Currently in maturing to early harvest; safrinha corn planting starting. Record yields expected (~65 bags/ha) despite occasional dry spells; overall favorable season per Agroconsult and Conab reports.
• Goiás / Minas Soy: 30-day precip significantly below normal (37.8%) — concerning dryness. scattered showers (~13.2 mm). Currently in pod fill to maturity. Mixed conditions; some soil issues but positive outlook.
• Paraná/ São Paulo Soy: 30-day precip significantly below normal (41.4%) — concerning dryness. scattered showers (~4.1 mm). Currently in reproductive to maturity. Variable moisture; irregular rains noted in recent forecasts.
• Rio Grande do Sul Soy: 30-day precip below normal (67.0%). no meaningful rainfall in the last 24h. Currently in late vegetative to reproductive. Potential delays from heavy rains or floods in southern areas.

Argentina Crop Regions:
• Córdoba / Rosario Corn-Soy: 30-day precip significantly below normal (38.2%) — concerning dryness. no meaningful rainfall in the last 24h. Currently in corn: pollination; soy: early reproductive. Good conditions but monitoring for dry January patterns.
• Santa Fe / Entre Ríos: 30-day precip near to slightly above normal (100.0%). no meaningful rainfall in the last 24h. Currently in corn/soy: key yield stages. Wetter than average; risk of delays or disease.
• Buenos Aires Wheat: 30-day precip significantly below normal (27.6%) — concerning dryness. no meaningful rainfall in the last 24h. Currently in harvest complete (99%+ done); post-harvest/fallow. Record 2025/26 crop (~27.8M tons nationally) per BAGE; focus now on soil recharge for next crops.
• Northern Argentina Corn: 30-day precip well above normal (202.5%). no meaningful rainfall in the last 24h. Currently in vegetative to tasseling. Very wet conditions; potential excess moisture issues.

Outlook: Conditions remain mixed. Northern areas generally comfortable, while southern dryness and heat risks need close watching over next 2 weeks.