South America Crop & Weather Update – February 19, 2026

Mato Grosso Soybeans – key area: 30-day precip at 72.8% of normal. Recent rain negligible last 24h (temp dep +1.0°F). Near-term: good soaking likely (~1.46 in, 100% coverage) — helpful for final grain fill in maturing soybeans and yield support. Medium-term: heavy rain expected in 6-10 days (~1.63 in, 100% area). Watch point: if persistent/heavy, could delay harvest and tighten safrinha corn planting window (ideal finish by late Feb/early Mar to avoid late-season dryness risk).

Argentina Highlights:
• Córdoba / Rosario Corn-Soy: 30-day precip at 93.8% of normal with dry conditions; recent rain ~1.20 in last 24h; hot temps in 1-5d (+2.0°F dep) and 6-10d (+4.8°F dep) during critical pollination period — risk of stress, limited relief (~2.04 in short-term, ~0.02 in medium-term).
• Buenos Aires Corn-Soy (post-wheat harvest, lesser concern for wheat but relevant for corn): 30-day precip at 60.6% of normal with dry conditions; hot temps in 1-5d (+3.5°F dep) and 6-10d (+3.9°F dep) — potential yield impacts, modest precip ahead (~0.97 in short-term, ~0.13 in medium-term).

Other regions quick view:
• Central/Northern Brazil: mixed, some drier zones but short-term improvement likely
• Southern Brazil: variable moisture, excess possible in Rio Grande do Sul
• Argentina: northern areas very wet, central/southern drier — mixed signals

Bottom line: meaningful near-term moisture relief in Mato Grosso after earlier dryness concerns.
Harvest timing + safrinha start will be the main focus over next 2 weeks.